Dodixie is one of the major hubs, the 3rd largest in fact. PLEX there right now are about 810 million each in sell orders and only 771 million each in buy orders. Prices are down around the same levels in many other regions too.
And here's a screenshot of the PLEX I've bought over just the last few days.
That's 41 more PLEX, nearly doubling my existing stock. If prices continue falling, I'll burn 100+ on subscriptions and wind up with all 12 of my accounts subbed for at least a full year.
Note those purchases were all guard orders priced well under the then going price of 1-3 weeks ago and for the most part just left to sit without modification until they got filled. The orders were in many different regions, most of them were for either 2 or 5 and have been completely filled.
Of course the real market rush is going to start on Christmas Day and probably last for 2-3 days. Then on Jan 1 we'll start seeing the effects of the new multi-boxing policy.
Things are about to get very interesting.
Don't forget about the January PLEX sale.
ReplyDeleteIn many countries, esp. those which do not celebrate Christmas, such as Japan, New Year's Day is often celebrated by cash gifts. Also, many companies give cash bonuses out in January, particularly those whose fiscal year ends in December.
CCP will probably want to rake in as much of that cash as they can, too.
I've got a bunch of plex from a few weeks ago too, if prices keep on dropping I'll just have an excuse to use them on my accounts instead of reselling them.
ReplyDeleteChristmas Day - sell orders tracking below 800M in many regions; buy orders in some regions are already below 700M - looks like orders above 700M are being filled fast.
ReplyDeleteWon't be too surprised if prices hit 600-650M after the January sale - maybe even nosedive down to 500-550M, if everyone with deep pockets has already built up their stockpile for PLEXing their accounts for the next several years. (Personally, I won't need to buy any PLEX for my accounts until prices are probably sub-500M.)
I'm in a similar situation, I have more than enough PLEX to sub all my accounts for a full year. I'm still buying and selling though. I bought quite a few today (Christmas Day) and made good profits (as much as 100m per) on most of them.
DeleteBased on what happened today and the disappearance of all blocking orders in The Forge (Jita) I'm expecting prices will drop under 700 mil soon. I also agree your numbers sound plausible, pretty much what I've been thinking could happen all along.
I doubt they'll drop under 500 million or if they do it won't be for long. If they drop that low I'll probably sink a large part of my net worth into PLEX and I believe enough others would do the same to keep the price from dropping much lower than that.
Oh when I say I expect prices to drop under 700 mil soon, I meant in sell orders on Jita. I've already bought a bunch for 700 mil and a bunch more in the 710-771 range.
DeleteActually, I suspect that the lower the price goes, the better for CCP and the game.
DeleteIf it drops to, say, 250M per PLEX (unlikely, I know), then players with lots of RL cash, and no patience to grind ISK in-game, will pay 3x-4x more for their laziness - which means more revenue for CCP. And, players who don't have much RL cash, and rely on grinding ISK to pay for PLEX, will be more easily able to afford to keep playing - not everyone is as space rich as you. :).
After this year, I'm pretty sure that CCP has a good idea now how inflated PLEX pricing in game affects their sub numbers and revenue - and where they want the sweet spot to be. I would not be surprised if they were actively attempting to push the price back down to around 500M.
And, as for rich players buying up the PLEX to keep the price up indefinitely, I think even you will probably stop buying when you have got a stockpile of 5-10 years for all of your accounts... lol.
Agreed on all points, especially the one about lower prices increasing CCP revenues. And that's what CCP cares about, CCP revenues, not the revenues of botters and boxers.
DeleteI don't stockpile PLEX normally, I buy PLEX for quick resale. My current stock has been growing lately because though I have been expecting the price to drop and trying not to buy too many I do have guard orders up so I know when the price does drop. Those guard orders keep getting filled when I least expect it. The price is dropping faster than I can resell them *without camping. Not too worried about that though since I can always use them for account subs and multiple training or even sit on a small pile for a long time.
Also I hadn't thought about the possibility of CCP wanting PLEX prices at a certain price level now. That's a great point. If they do want the price in a sweet spot, I'd guess it'd be around 500 mil too... Cheap enough more players can afford to buy PLEX with ISK but not so cheap everyone stops buying them with real money.
Hahahahaha, what an idiot!
ReplyDelete