First as we all know (or should know by now) a new policy is coming into effect on Jan 1st regarding input multiplication, duplication, broadcasting or w/e you want to call it. What it boils down to is most of what multiboxers do now will become a bannable offence on Jan 1.
We've already seen shifts in markets due to speculation on what's going to happen when the new policy goes into effect. The easiest place to see this is in the PLEX market where prices have been trending downward ever since the policy change was announced (even slightly before).
As can easily be seen in the graph above, PLEX prices spiked sharply down immediately after the announcement (in fact it actually started a day or so prior to the announcement). The price then recovered somewhat before again trending down at a lower rate. That trend is still continuing today.
However it's all speculative at this point, we won't know for sure what the real and lasting effects of the policy change will be until after it comes into effect on Jan 1. Even then it'll probably be at least a month or two until things start settling down and we can predict what will happen in the PLEX market over the long term with much confidence.
Those who predict (or guess) right early and back it up with their wallets could easily make a fortune. Then again those who guess wrong could easily lose a fortune.
But I'm not making long term predictions here, other than that there will market chaos on Jan 1. I'm just going to predict the following.
1. There will be increased demand for PLEX over the Christmas Holidays. Expect to see a moderate rise in price. I'm sitting on 40 or 50 PLEX in anticipation of that, expecting to sell them for enough more in a few days to make it worth holding on to them for now.
2. That will be followed by a continuation of the existing downward trend in PLEX prices.
3. On or shortly after Jan 1 there will be chaos in the markets. Massive chaos. The PLEX and ore/minerals markets will be affected first. Most other markets will follow ore and minerals.
I'm expecting ore and mineral prices to go up while PLEX prices continue going down. Depending on exactly how things work out (in particular how strict CCP is about enforcing the new policy) we could be in for a big crash in the PLEX market.
Then again if CCP isn't very strict or is ineffectual about enforcing the new policy things will soon be back to business as usual for multiboxers and market manipulators. PLEX prices will start going up again and ore/mineral prices will come down.
So make your predictions, open your wallets and take your chances, there are fortunes to be made and lost during chaotic times like this. Or you can just play it safe, stand pat and wait to see what happens before acting. The choice is your's.
Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
I don't recall any of the more alarmist market predictions ending up being accurate in EVE. Initial large fluctuations tend to relate to market manipulation. Over time things settled into a new normal / balance, and the game continues on. The only truth seems to be that small groups of people make a huge profit out of it.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, you're pretty terrible.
ReplyDelete